I am oft asked to opine nigh whether automation volition destroy all the jobs. Yes, nosotros verbalize nigh tractors, which brought farm work from something similar 70% of the province at the initiative of all of the 20th century to nigh 3% today. And cars, which lay the Equus caballus drivers out of business. And trains, which lay the canal boats out of business.
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 to a greater extent than recent illustration occurred to me. This is what offices looked similar inwards the 1950s together with 1960s:
This is a "typing pool." There used to last basketball-court sized rooms that looked similar this, all over the place, staffed almost solely past times women.
Then along came the copier -- many of these women are copying documents past times typing them over i time to a greater extent than alongside a few sheets of carbon newspaper -- the fax machine, the give-and-take processor, the PC. And that's only typing. Accounting involved similar roomfuls of women alongside adding machines. Filing disappeared. Roomfuls of women used to operate outcry upward switchboards, instantly all automated.
This retentivity lives on inwards the architecture of universities. All the one-time buildings get got empty hutches for secretaries.
If you lot are prognosticating inwards nigh 1970, together with someone asks, "what volition tumble out instantly that women desire to bring together the workforce, but constituent automation is going to destroy all their jobs?" It would last a pretty gloomy forecast.
What truly happened: Female project forcefulness increased from xx 1000000 to 75 million. The woman someone participation charge per unit of measurement increased from below 35% to 60%. Women's reward relative to men rose -- they moved inwards to higher productivity activities than typing the same memo over a hundred times. Businesses expanded. And no, 55 1000000 men are non out on the streets begging for spare change.
I'm simplifying of course. And certainly around people alongside specific skills -- shorthand, typing without making mistakes, together with and thus on -- who could non retrain didn't create too every bit others. But the magnitude of the phenomenon is pretty impressive.
Update. So did women only accept all the men's jobs? As MC points out, the manly someone project forcefulness participation charge per unit of measurement did decline, from 87.5 to 70.0. That's a big, worrisome decline. But it's fifteen percent points, piece the women's increment was 25 percent points.
But fifty-fifty if women are moving inwards together with men are moving out of employment, that does brand the illustration that you lot don't only hold off at who has what jobs instantly threatened past times automation! The typing puddle got amend jobs.
Please (please!) popular off on inwards heed the quest here. No, this is non a shipping service nigh all the ills of the project market, together with "middle class" America, together with all the rest. Yes, in that location are plenty. The narrow quest is, volition automation hateful that all the jobs vanish. In this case, fifty-fifty combined alongside a large expansion of the people wanting to work, it did not.
Also the manly someone project forcefulness expanded from 45 1000000 to 82 million. So the thought that in that location is a fixed release of jobs together with if women accept them men lose them is non true.
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 to a greater extent than recent illustration occurred to me. This is what offices looked similar inwards the 1950s together with 1960s:
Typing Pool. Source: Getty Images
Then along came the copier -- many of these women are copying documents past times typing them over i time to a greater extent than alongside a few sheets of carbon newspaper -- the fax machine, the give-and-take processor, the PC. And that's only typing. Accounting involved similar roomfuls of women alongside adding machines. Filing disappeared. Roomfuls of women used to operate outcry upward switchboards, instantly all automated.
This retentivity lives on inwards the architecture of universities. All the one-time buildings get got empty hutches for secretaries.
If you lot are prognosticating inwards nigh 1970, together with someone asks, "what volition tumble out instantly that women desire to bring together the workforce, but constituent automation is going to destroy all their jobs?" It would last a pretty gloomy forecast.
What truly happened: Female project forcefulness increased from xx 1000000 to 75 million. The woman someone participation charge per unit of measurement increased from below 35% to 60%. Women's reward relative to men rose -- they moved inwards to higher productivity activities than typing the same memo over a hundred times. Businesses expanded. And no, 55 1000000 men are non out on the streets begging for spare change.
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| Civilian Labor Force Level: Women |
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| Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: Women |
I'm simplifying of course. And certainly around people alongside specific skills -- shorthand, typing without making mistakes, together with and thus on -- who could non retrain didn't create too every bit others. But the magnitude of the phenomenon is pretty impressive.
Update. So did women only accept all the men's jobs? As MC points out, the manly someone project forcefulness participation charge per unit of measurement did decline, from 87.5 to 70.0. That's a big, worrisome decline. But it's fifteen percent points, piece the women's increment was 25 percent points.
But fifty-fifty if women are moving inwards together with men are moving out of employment, that does brand the illustration that you lot don't only hold off at who has what jobs instantly threatened past times automation! The typing puddle got amend jobs.
Please (please!) popular off on inwards heed the quest here. No, this is non a shipping service nigh all the ills of the project market, together with "middle class" America, together with all the rest. Yes, in that location are plenty. The narrow quest is, volition automation hateful that all the jobs vanish. In this case, fifty-fifty combined alongside a large expansion of the people wanting to work, it did not.
