This post takes its title from mankiw-vs-delong-and-krugman-on-the-cea-s-real-gdp-forecasts-in-early-2009-what-might-a-time-series-econometrician-have-said">a new article at Econ Journal Watch. Here is the abstract:
In early on 2009, the incoming Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers predicted existent GDP would rebound strongly from recession levels. In a weblog post, Greg Mankiw expressed skepticism. In their blogs, Brad DeLong in addition to Paul Krugman sighed. Of class at that topographic point would endure rigid growth, they maintained, because the recovery of job would mandate it via Okun’s Law. Mankiw challenged Krugman to a bet on the issue, but at that topographic point was no response. Of class nosotros instantly direct hold a practiced visit of the probable outcome, but I posit a hypothetical fourth dimension serial econometrician who, at the fourth dimension of the weblog entries, applies only about criterion forecasting methods to encounter whether DeLong in addition to Krugman’s confidence was justified. The econometrician’s determination is that Mankiw would probable win the bet in addition to furthermore that a rebound of whatsoever significance is unlikely. The econometrician has no visit how DeLong in addition to Krugman could direct hold been in addition to hence confident inward the CEA’s rebound forecast. Sumber https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
In early on 2009, the incoming Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers predicted existent GDP would rebound strongly from recession levels. In a weblog post, Greg Mankiw expressed skepticism. In their blogs, Brad DeLong in addition to Paul Krugman sighed. Of class at that topographic point would endure rigid growth, they maintained, because the recovery of job would mandate it via Okun’s Law. Mankiw challenged Krugman to a bet on the issue, but at that topographic point was no response. Of class nosotros instantly direct hold a practiced visit of the probable outcome, but I posit a hypothetical fourth dimension serial econometrician who, at the fourth dimension of the weblog entries, applies only about criterion forecasting methods to encounter whether DeLong in addition to Krugman’s confidence was justified. The econometrician’s determination is that Mankiw would probable win the bet in addition to furthermore that a rebound of whatsoever significance is unlikely. The econometrician has no visit how DeLong in addition to Krugman could direct hold been in addition to hence confident inward the CEA’s rebound forecast. Sumber https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
