Last calendar week I attended the commencement one-half of the conference on the Handbook of Macroeconomics Volume 2, organized past times John Taylor in addition to Harald Uhlig, held at Hoover. The conference program in addition to most of the papers are here. The minute one-half volition hold upwards inwards Chicago Apr 23-25, program here
Overall, this Handbook is shaping upwards equally a rattling useful resource. Really expert summary in addition to review papers are a natural means inwards to long literatures. Bad summary in addition to review papers are long in addition to boring. The conference produced the commencement kind. Most of the papers are petroleum commencement drafts, thence brand a banking concern annotation to come upwards dorsum when they're finished. H5N1 few highlights (with apologies to authors I've left out; I can't review them all here.)
Republic of Chad Jones' "The Facts of Economic Growth" is a tremendous introduction to a complex field, nicely mixing facts in addition to ideas. If you lot final left increase theory alongside a thought that ratios are stable in addition to nosotros simply climb upwards alongside TFP, this newspaper volition alter that view. Equipment is getting cheaper. Factor shares are moving. Human uppercase is trending up, along alongside its price. R&D spending in addition to job portion tendency up. Misallocation has first-order negative effects on productivity, a finding from increase theory that macro should pay to a greater extent than attending to. Agriculture is declining, wellness attention expanding. Fertility is declining. Inequality, .. yes, that too. Sometimes countries converge, sometimes they diverge.
Monica Piazzesi Martin Schneider's "Housing in addition to Macroeconomics" -- no newspaper yet, alas, but expect for it -- is a rattling overnice introduction to the form of explicit modeling interacted alongside information that they've been doing.
Valerie Ramey's Macroeconomic Shocks in addition to Their Propagation took upwards the electrical flow the world of vector autoregressions, daze identification in addition to thence forth. H5N1 slap-up integration of a long literature. Where are we? Both Valeire in addition to Arvind Krishnamurthy discussing showed lots of graphs alongside varying signs of the effects of monetary policy. Despite 60 years (since Milton Friedman regressed output on money, alongside high points from Tobin in addition to Solow early on 1960s; St. Louis Fed belatedly 1960s; Sims in addition to Granger belatedly 1970s; Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans 1999; Romer in addition to Romer to a greater extent than recently), we're even thence at it. Most of the give-and-take pointed out how much dubiety at that topographic point even thence is. I opined that most of the "uncertainty" was most how much you lot convey to torture estimates to avoid the decision that involvement charge per unit of measurement rises enhance output in addition to inflation.
Gary Hansen in addition to Lee Ohanian encompass "Neoclassical Theories" past times example, integrating 3 recent models they convey worked on, roofing how "neoclassical" theories tin delineate of piece of work organization human relationship for the Great Depression, the WWII boom, in addition to the surprisingly large postwar fluctuations at frequencies lower than measure delineate of piece of work organization cycles. My discussion complained most the habit of dissimilar models for dissimilar facts, in addition to exogenous TFP shocks. I suggests that it's fourth dimension to thought delineate of piece of work organization bicycle TFP movements equally to a greater extent than than simply scientific innovation identified past times residual, but rather to include in addition to independently mensurate all the "wedges" that policy is inducing betwixt conception in addition to adoption. Among other points.
Jim Stock in addition to Mark Watson, "Factor Models for Macroeconomics" (No paper, alas, but expect for it) is shaping upwards to hold upwards i of those rattling useful "how to" papers that handbooks tin provide. Lots of insight inwards how to purpose the Stock-Watson methodology inwards many contexts, all inwards i place, in addition to (to justice past times Mark's presentation) ultra-clear in addition to accessible.
Bob Hall shut rigid alongside "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," the latest inwards Bob's thinking on this dependent area (other highlights are his AEA Presidential Speech in addition to Macro Annual paper.) An interesting sidelight, Bob also innovated a novel solution methodology. Write the shocks equally multinomials, in addition to thence simply solve commencement lodge weather on the next tree. It's amazingly fast. And non inwards the Fernández-Villaverde, Rubio-Ramirez, Schorfheide cookbook.
Again, the other papers were slap-up too. And the minute circular promises to equal if non amend the first.
Overall, this Handbook is shaping upwards equally a rattling useful resource. Really expert summary in addition to review papers are a natural means inwards to long literatures. Bad summary in addition to review papers are long in addition to boring. The conference produced the commencement kind. Most of the papers are petroleum commencement drafts, thence brand a banking concern annotation to come upwards dorsum when they're finished. H5N1 few highlights (with apologies to authors I've left out; I can't review them all here.)
Republic of Chad Jones' "The Facts of Economic Growth" is a tremendous introduction to a complex field, nicely mixing facts in addition to ideas. If you lot final left increase theory alongside a thought that ratios are stable in addition to nosotros simply climb upwards alongside TFP, this newspaper volition alter that view. Equipment is getting cheaper. Factor shares are moving. Human uppercase is trending up, along alongside its price. R&D spending in addition to job portion tendency up. Misallocation has first-order negative effects on productivity, a finding from increase theory that macro should pay to a greater extent than attending to. Agriculture is declining, wellness attention expanding. Fertility is declining. Inequality, .. yes, that too. Sometimes countries converge, sometimes they diverge.
"... in i lawsuit countries larn on the “growth escalator,” expert things tend to spill out in addition to they grow chop-chop to displace closer to the frontier. Where they destination upwards depends, equally nosotros volition discuss, on the extent to which their institutions improve."Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan Rubio-Ramirez in addition to Frank Schorfheide's "Solution in addition to Estimation Methods for DSGE Models" is encyclopedic, approaching a mass inwards itself. The technique of solving models, curiously banished from papers these days, is a nighttime art. There are lots of techniques. Which hit you lot purpose when? think this volition hold upwards a rattling useful "cookbook" for modelers, which is simply the sort of thing handbooks are expert for. We had a lively give-and-take on which techniques are best for which kinds of models. How many shocks, how many the world variables, how of import are nonlinearities all matter. I made the commons complaints most identification, in addition to that mayhap models nosotros know are faux (one shock, many series) mightiness non hold upwards correct for formal dark box estimation methods. Intuitive connecter to robust facts inwards the information may hold upwards to a greater extent than of import than statistical efficiency when the model is a quantitative parable.
Monica Piazzesi Martin Schneider's "Housing in addition to Macroeconomics" -- no newspaper yet, alas, but expect for it -- is a rattling overnice introduction to the form of explicit modeling interacted alongside information that they've been doing.
Valerie Ramey's Macroeconomic Shocks in addition to Their Propagation took upwards the electrical flow the world of vector autoregressions, daze identification in addition to thence forth. H5N1 slap-up integration of a long literature. Where are we? Both Valeire in addition to Arvind Krishnamurthy discussing showed lots of graphs alongside varying signs of the effects of monetary policy. Despite 60 years (since Milton Friedman regressed output on money, alongside high points from Tobin in addition to Solow early on 1960s; St. Louis Fed belatedly 1960s; Sims in addition to Granger belatedly 1970s; Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans 1999; Romer in addition to Romer to a greater extent than recently), we're even thence at it. Most of the give-and-take pointed out how much dubiety at that topographic point even thence is. I opined that most of the "uncertainty" was most how much you lot convey to torture estimates to avoid the decision that involvement charge per unit of measurement rises enhance output in addition to inflation.
Gary Hansen in addition to Lee Ohanian encompass "Neoclassical Theories" past times example, integrating 3 recent models they convey worked on, roofing how "neoclassical" theories tin delineate of piece of work organization human relationship for the Great Depression, the WWII boom, in addition to the surprisingly large postwar fluctuations at frequencies lower than measure delineate of piece of work organization cycles. My discussion complained most the habit of dissimilar models for dissimilar facts, in addition to exogenous TFP shocks. I suggests that it's fourth dimension to thought delineate of piece of work organization bicycle TFP movements equally to a greater extent than than simply scientific innovation identified past times residual, but rather to include in addition to independently mensurate all the "wedges" that policy is inducing betwixt conception in addition to adoption. Among other points.
Jim Stock in addition to Mark Watson, "Factor Models for Macroeconomics" (No paper, alas, but expect for it) is shaping upwards to hold upwards i of those rattling useful "how to" papers that handbooks tin provide. Lots of insight inwards how to purpose the Stock-Watson methodology inwards many contexts, all inwards i place, in addition to (to justice past times Mark's presentation) ultra-clear in addition to accessible.
Bob Hall shut rigid alongside "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," the latest inwards Bob's thinking on this dependent area (other highlights are his AEA Presidential Speech in addition to Macro Annual paper.) An interesting sidelight, Bob also innovated a novel solution methodology. Write the shocks equally multinomials, in addition to thence simply solve commencement lodge weather on the next tree. It's amazingly fast. And non inwards the Fernández-Villaverde, Rubio-Ramirez, Schorfheide cookbook.
Again, the other papers were slap-up too. And the minute circular promises to equal if non amend the first.
