Is Grexit fifty-fifty possible?
It strikes me that the best Hellenic Republic tin exercise alongside a Drachma is to exercise a two-currency system, assort of similar Republic of Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek authorities seems to admire, too whose economies its may shortly resemble.
If the authorities brings dorsum the Drachma as a mode to pay pensions, authorities salaries, too depository fiscal establishment accounts, Euros volition withal circulate inwards Greece.
18% of Greek gross domestic product is tourism. That discover may hold upwards understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants, stores, transport, too other places that mix tourists too locals. Tourists volition pass Euros, non Drachmas. So hotels, gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, clothe stores, airlines, machine rentals, etc. volition probable withal gladly accept euros too euro credit cards, too from locals besides every bit tourists.
I looked upwards Greek gross domestic product at the OECD. Of 157 billion euros value added, agriculture is a tiny 6, manufacture 18, of which manufacturing 13. However, services are 130, 80% of the total. Here, the big items are "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation too food" 41, existent estate activities 34, too populace management 39. Exports too imports are each virtually lx out of 180 billion euros.
Now, anyone exporting -- lx out of 157 -- has access to euros too probable invoice inwards euros give cheers you lot real much. Anyone importing volition postulate to teach their hands on those euros.
(Interestingly most exports are services, most imports are goods. I can't teach a grip on what services Hellenic Republic exports, too thence whether devaluation would brand much difference.)
The 41 billion of "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation too food" services volition certainly accept euros every bit above, to convenience the tourist trade. I can't fathom how 34 billion euros are existent estate services -- non structure -- too so I can't gauge actually if that is euros or Drachmas. The 39 billion of populace management gets Drachmas.
So, the Drachmaized Hellenic Republic that I come across is non the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that to a greater extent than or less on the left seem to envision. Instead I come across a two-currency economy. Pensioners too authorities workers too anyone unlucky plenty to withal cause got a Greek depository fiscal establishment trouble organisation human relationship teach Drachmas. Hotel owners, eating seat owners, too exporters teach euros, inwards a higher house or nether the table.
In this scenario, I can't imagine a freely convertible currency. Will the authorities actually give 100 Drachmas to soul who used to teach 100 Euros, alongside an central charge per unit of measurement below half? The signal of non cutting salaries was political. So nosotros are almost certain to come across working capital missive of the alphabet controls, central controls, too a fictional overvalued central rate, too so Hellenic Republic tin pretend to pay pensioners too authorities workers.
It's non a pretty thought. Sticking alongside the euro seems a far amend option, simply similar sticking alongside the meter.
It strikes me that the best Hellenic Republic tin exercise alongside a Drachma is to exercise a two-currency system, assort of similar Republic of Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek authorities seems to admire, too whose economies its may shortly resemble.
If the authorities brings dorsum the Drachma as a mode to pay pensions, authorities salaries, too depository fiscal establishment accounts, Euros volition withal circulate inwards Greece.
18% of Greek gross domestic product is tourism. That discover may hold upwards understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants, stores, transport, too other places that mix tourists too locals. Tourists volition pass Euros, non Drachmas. So hotels, gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, clothe stores, airlines, machine rentals, etc. volition probable withal gladly accept euros too euro credit cards, too from locals besides every bit tourists.
I looked upwards Greek gross domestic product at the OECD. Of 157 billion euros value added, agriculture is a tiny 6, manufacture 18, of which manufacturing 13. However, services are 130, 80% of the total. Here, the big items are "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation too food" 41, existent estate activities 34, too populace management 39. Exports too imports are each virtually lx out of 180 billion euros.
Now, anyone exporting -- lx out of 157 -- has access to euros too probable invoice inwards euros give cheers you lot real much. Anyone importing volition postulate to teach their hands on those euros.
(Interestingly most exports are services, most imports are goods. I can't teach a grip on what services Hellenic Republic exports, too thence whether devaluation would brand much difference.)
The 41 billion of "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation too food" services volition certainly accept euros every bit above, to convenience the tourist trade. I can't fathom how 34 billion euros are existent estate services -- non structure -- too so I can't gauge actually if that is euros or Drachmas. The 39 billion of populace management gets Drachmas.
So, the Drachmaized Hellenic Republic that I come across is non the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that to a greater extent than or less on the left seem to envision. Instead I come across a two-currency economy. Pensioners too authorities workers too anyone unlucky plenty to withal cause got a Greek depository fiscal establishment trouble organisation human relationship teach Drachmas. Hotel owners, eating seat owners, too exporters teach euros, inwards a higher house or nether the table.
In this scenario, I can't imagine a freely convertible currency. Will the authorities actually give 100 Drachmas to soul who used to teach 100 Euros, alongside an central charge per unit of measurement below half? The signal of non cutting salaries was political. So nosotros are almost certain to come across working capital missive of the alphabet controls, central controls, too a fictional overvalued central rate, too so Hellenic Republic tin pretend to pay pensioners too authorities workers.
It's non a pretty thought. Sticking alongside the euro seems a far amend option, simply similar sticking alongside the meter.
