Now that Intrade is gone, here is i house to run across who is ahead based on betting odds.
Update: H5N1 friend emails me:
It's clear from the numbers that this marketplace doesn't aspect a credible third-party candidate. Interestingly, this way that the reported unconditional probability of becoming president (the 3rd column) is the production of the reported probability of winning a political party nomination (one of the start 2 columns) in addition to the implied conditional probability.
Clinton's implied probability of getting elected conditional on winning the Democratic nomination is 60.3%. That way that, "on average," the Republican nominee has a 39.7% peril of winning. The market's sentiment of the relative strengths of the Republican candidates tin in addition to then hold upward seen past times comparison their implied conditional probabilities to this 39.7% figure:
Bush 55.4%
Carson 38.8%
Cruz 36.6% Sumber https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
Update: H5N1 friend emails me:
It's clear from the numbers that this marketplace doesn't aspect a credible third-party candidate. Interestingly, this way that the reported unconditional probability of becoming president (the 3rd column) is the production of the reported probability of winning a political party nomination (one of the start 2 columns) in addition to the implied conditional probability.
Clinton's implied probability of getting elected conditional on winning the Democratic nomination is 60.3%. That way that, "on average," the Republican nominee has a 39.7% peril of winning. The market's sentiment of the relative strengths of the Republican candidates tin in addition to then hold upward seen past times comparison their implied conditional probabilities to this 39.7% figure:
Rubio 41.9%
Trump 42.0%Bush 55.4%
Carson 38.8%
Cruz 36.6% Sumber https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
