Chad Syverson has an interesting novel newspaper on the sources of the productivity slowdown.
Background to wake yous up: Long-term United States of America of America increase is slowing down. This is a (the!) big of import number inwards economic science (one previous post). And productivity -- how much each individual tin gain per lx minutes -- is the solely root of long-term growth. We are non vastly amend off than our grandparents because nosotros negotiated amend reward for hacking at coal amongst pickaxes.
Why is productivity slowing down? Perhaps we've run out of ideas (Gordon). Perhaps a savings glut in addition to the zero leap drive secular stagnation lack of take away (Summers). Perhaps the out of command regulatory leviathan is killing increase amongst a G cuts (Cochrane).
Or maybe productivity isn't declining at all, we're merely measuring novel products badly (Varian; Silicon Valley). Google maps is free! If so, nosotros are living amongst undiagnosed but salubrious deflation, in addition to existent gross domestic product increase is genuinely doing well.
Chad:
Background to wake yous up: Long-term United States of America of America increase is slowing down. This is a (the!) big of import number inwards economic science (one previous post). And productivity -- how much each individual tin gain per lx minutes -- is the solely root of long-term growth. We are non vastly amend off than our grandparents because nosotros negotiated amend reward for hacking at coal amongst pickaxes.
Why is productivity slowing down? Perhaps we've run out of ideas (Gordon). Perhaps a savings glut in addition to the zero leap drive secular stagnation lack of take away (Summers). Perhaps the out of command regulatory leviathan is killing increase amongst a G cuts (Cochrane).
Or maybe productivity isn't declining at all, we're merely measuring novel products badly (Varian; Silicon Valley). Google maps is free! If so, nosotros are living amongst undiagnosed but salubrious deflation, in addition to existent gross domestic product increase is genuinely doing well.
Chad:
First, the productivity slowdown has occurred inwards dozens of countries, in addition to its size is unrelated to measures of the countries’ consumption or production intensities of information in addition to communication technologies ... Second, estimates... of the surplus created past times internet-linked digital technologies autumn far curt of the $2.7 trillion or to a greater extent than of “missing output” resulting from the productivity increase slowdown...Third, if criterion problems were to job concern human relationship for fifty-fifty a small-scale portion of this missing output, the properly measured output in addition to productivity increase rates of industries that gain in addition to service ICTs [internet] would convey to convey been multiples of their measured increase inwards the data. Fourth, spell measured gross domestic income has been on average higher than measured gross domestic production since 2004—perhaps indicating workers are beingness paid to brand products that are given away for complimentary or at highly discounted prices—this tendency genuinely began earlier the productivity slowdown in addition to moreover reflects unusually high uppercase income rather than project income (i.e., profits are unusually high). In combination, these complementary facets of prove propose that the reasonable prima facie example for the mismeasurement hypothesis faces existent hurdles when confronted amongst the data.
An interesting read throughout.
[Except for that concluding sentence, a almost parody of academic caution!]
