On Friday, I went to the NBER EFG (Economic Fluctuations together with Growth) coming together at the SF Fed. Program together with papers here. The papers were great, the discussions were great, the comments were great, fifty-fifty the nutrient was good. (You know you're inwards California when the conference snack is avocado toast.)
The papers:
1) Fatih Guvenen, Gueorgui Kambourov, Burhanettin Kuruscu, Sergio Ocampo-Diaz, Daphne Chen, "Use It Or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation" Discussant: Roger H. Gordon.
If everyone earns 4% render on their investments, a 50% charge per unit of measurement of render taxation (combining corporate income together with personal taxes) is the same matter equally a 2% wealth tax. Everyone gets a 2% afterward taxation render on their investments.
But what if to a greater extent than or less people -- Mike, inwards the example, -- are skillful entrepreneurs together with tin earn 20% charge per unit of measurement of return, land together with others -- Fredo -- earn 0% returns. Now a 50% charge per unit of measurement of render taxation lowers Mike's render to 10% but has no trial on Fredo. If the authorities raises the same amount of coin -- 10 cents -- from a 0.10/2.20 = 4.5% wealth tax, Mike earns a (1-0.045) x 1.20 -1 = 14.6% charge per unit of measurement of return, together with Fredo earns a - 4.5% charge per unit of measurement of return. The incentive to survive Mike rises, together with to survive Fredo declines.
The newspaper has a model amongst all sorts of useful bells together with whistles -- y'all desire these to create taxation policy -- edifice on this intuition. The model fits all sorts of facts including the wealth distribution. The wealth taxation ends upwards helping workers too, because reward rise.
2) Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman, Jesse Schreger, "International Currencies together with Capital Allocation"
Discussant: Harald Uhlig (funniest give-and-take award)
Mutual funds accept a potent home currency bias, which completely drives out home bias. These investors similar to agree bonds inwards their ain currency, but non necessarily issued yesteryear companies inwards their habitation country. If y'all desire to sell bonds to Canadians -- fifty-fifty Canadian mutual funds -- sell them inwards Canadian dollars. There is i exception: the dollar. When funds branch out to other currencies, they outset amongst dollars. Likewise, modest companies primarily enhance coin inwards their ain currency. When they branch out, they outset amongst dollars.
3) Katarína Borovičková, Robert Shimer, "High Wage Workers Work for High Wage Firms" Discussant: Isaac Sorkin
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 clever stair out of correlation, showing that, equally the championship says, high wage workers function for companies that pay high average wages, together with also depression wage workers function for companies that pay depression wages. This seems obvious, but it has non been inwards the data. The previous approach to this enquiry by Abowd, Kramarz together with Margolis (1999) constitute no correlation. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 big give-and-take near correlation vs the AKM regression estimate. It turns out the Definition of correlation is real subtle, together with depends on the form of search model y'all accept inwards mind.
Ellen McGratten asked a precipitous question: Wait, if a theatre outsources its janitors, does this non spike? Really nosotros are learning near the boundaries of the firm. Answer yes, together with actually nosotros desire to know whether high wage people function amongst other high wage people. More give-and-take near what the fact agency near articulation production together with the sorting together with matching process.
4) Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman, "The Fiscal Multiplier" Discussant: Adrien Auclert
The papers:
1) Fatih Guvenen, Gueorgui Kambourov, Burhanettin Kuruscu, Sergio Ocampo-Diaz, Daphne Chen, "Use It Or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation" Discussant: Roger H. Gordon.
If everyone earns 4% render on their investments, a 50% charge per unit of measurement of render taxation (combining corporate income together with personal taxes) is the same matter equally a 2% wealth tax. Everyone gets a 2% afterward taxation render on their investments.
But what if to a greater extent than or less people -- Mike, inwards the example, -- are skillful entrepreneurs together with tin earn 20% charge per unit of measurement of return, land together with others -- Fredo -- earn 0% returns. Now a 50% charge per unit of measurement of render taxation lowers Mike's render to 10% but has no trial on Fredo. If the authorities raises the same amount of coin -- 10 cents -- from a 0.10/2.20 = 4.5% wealth tax, Mike earns a (1-0.045) x 1.20 -1 = 14.6% charge per unit of measurement of return, together with Fredo earns a - 4.5% charge per unit of measurement of return. The incentive to survive Mike rises, together with to survive Fredo declines.
The newspaper has a model amongst all sorts of useful bells together with whistles -- y'all desire these to create taxation policy -- edifice on this intuition. The model fits all sorts of facts including the wealth distribution. The wealth taxation ends upwards helping workers too, because reward rise.
In the fake model calibrated to the U.S.A. data, a revenue-neutral taxation reform that replaces working capital alphabetic quality income taxation amongst a wealth taxation raises welfare yesteryear near 8% inwards consumption-equivalent terms. ... optimal wealth taxes outcome inwards to a greater extent than fifty-fifty consumption together with leisure distributions (despite the wealth distribution becoming to a greater extent than dispersed)...wealth taxes tin yield both efficiency together with distributional gainsMuch discussion, centering on whether science actually is tied to returns.
2) Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman, Jesse Schreger, "International Currencies together with Capital Allocation"
Discussant: Harald Uhlig (funniest give-and-take award)
Mutual funds accept a potent home currency bias, which completely drives out home bias. These investors similar to agree bonds inwards their ain currency, but non necessarily issued yesteryear companies inwards their habitation country. If y'all desire to sell bonds to Canadians -- fifty-fifty Canadian mutual funds -- sell them inwards Canadian dollars. There is i exception: the dollar. When funds branch out to other currencies, they outset amongst dollars. Likewise, modest companies primarily enhance coin inwards their ain currency. When they branch out, they outset amongst dollars.
3) Katarína Borovičková, Robert Shimer, "High Wage Workers Work for High Wage Firms" Discussant: Isaac Sorkin
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 clever stair out of correlation, showing that, equally the championship says, high wage workers function for companies that pay high average wages, together with also depression wage workers function for companies that pay depression wages. This seems obvious, but it has non been inwards the data. The previous approach to this enquiry by Abowd, Kramarz together with Margolis (1999) constitute no correlation. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 big give-and-take near correlation vs the AKM regression estimate. It turns out the Definition of correlation is real subtle, together with depends on the form of search model y'all accept inwards mind.
Ellen McGratten asked a precipitous question: Wait, if a theatre outsources its janitors, does this non spike? Really nosotros are learning near the boundaries of the firm. Answer yes, together with actually nosotros desire to know whether high wage people function amongst other high wage people. More give-and-take near what the fact agency near articulation production together with the sorting together with matching process.
4) Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman, "The Fiscal Multiplier" Discussant: Adrien Auclert
This newspaper is near repairing the ridiculously huge estimates of financial multipliers inwards New-Keyensian models at the cypher bound. There is a lot going on including heterogenous agents amongst financing constraints, which I can't review.
Here's i matter I learned from it -- naturally related to the issues I accept idea near inwards this context inwards "the new-Keynesian liquidity trap" here. Building on an before newspaper yesteryear Hagedorn, they posit a money-like need for authorities debt. Thus they accept nominal debt/price storey = business office of something real. Like the financial theory, inwards which nominal debt/price storey = expected introduce value of existent surpluses, together with similar MV=PY, this tin create upwards one's heed the toll level, together with thence choice equilibria. They choice equilibria amongst express inflation jumps, which similar the financial theory serves to confine the size of the commons huge multipliers. The money-like nature of authorities bonds, whether from a backing theory similar the financial theory, or from this machinery similar to coin demand, is a mutual thread to many resolutions of new-Keynesian paradoxes. And it offers a much to a greater extent than conservative way frontward than cardinal surgery, such equally abandoning rational expectations.
5) Carlos Garriga, Aaron Hedlund, "Housing Finance, Boom-Bust Episodes, together with Macroeconomic Fragility" Discussant: Guido Lorenzoni
I'm actually impressed amongst the special of modern housing models similar this. Rent vs. ain decisions, provide of rental housing, search together with transactions costs to modify housing, incomplete markets, realistic mortgages, mortgage default, adjustment costs, nonseparable housing together with nonhousing consumption, refinancing, cash-out refinancings, and I in all likelihood missed one-half of it. Solve, agree a bunch of facts, analyze a crisis together with policy alternatives.
6) John Kennan, "Spatial Variation inwards Higher Education Financing together with the Supply of College Graduates" Discussant:Danny Yagan
Different states subsidize college teaching to unlike degrees. Does having a non bad province academy pay off, inwards that y'all acquire a ameliorate workforce? Or create your graduates but all acquire out to New York together with function for investment banks, or to Palo Alto to function for Google? Apparently not.
